Publications

The Lake Chad Basin (LCB) region is battling the scene of continuous violent conflicts and climate-induced displacement. While the state counterinsurgency measures have helped regain some of the areas controlled by non-state armed groups, a large portion of the agriculturally-rich areas in the region remain a battlefield between the state and insurgent groups. The inaccessibility of the civilian population to the contested areas has disrupted food production systems, causing a sharp rise in food prices in state-controlled areas and influencing civilians’ preference for armed-group-con-trolled areas for food security. In this paper, we examine the effects of state and non-state intervention programs on civilian risk preferences in the frontline areas. Drawing on empirical data from two frontline cities in Nigeria and Cameroon, we find that the intervention programs targeting housing, healthcare and business/skill training reduce the civilian propensity to migrate to the insurgent-controlled areas to secure agricultural access resources. Specifically, young and middle-aged business/skill training participants are significantly likelier to stay in state-controlled areas over the insurgents-controlled areas than non-participants. While women profit more from healthcare and housing support than men, we do not find any gender-specific effect of business/skill training on civilian risk preferences. Our study offers insights into short-term measures that can be explored to reduce civilian risk preferences in conflict-torn spaces where non-state armed groups use to access to agricultural resources to control civilians and civilian behaviours.