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On 11 March 2025, the European Commission introduced a new proposal for establishing a common system for the return of third-country nationals staying illegally in the European Union. This legislation-in-progress is an outcome of political pressure on the Commission, following the 17 member states' submission of a non-paper to the Commission calling for a new proposal to achieve ‘more effective returns’ and innovative solutions. 

A contentious element of this proposal is the creation, through bilateral agreements, of so-called 'return hubs' outside the EU. The idea is that migrants are transferred to third-country holding areas before a country, or Frontex, deports them. 

The European Commission proposal notes that states can only reach agreement with a third country if that country adheres to international human rights standards, including non-refoulement. The agreements should outline transfer modalities and conditions for the third-country nationals' short- or long-term stay. They should also include a monitoring mechanism to evaluate implementation and address any changes in the third country's circumstances. 

But enforcing these return hubs is likely to prove problematic. First, monitoring difficulties mean that there is a heightened risk of human rights violations. Second, some countries have already tried — unsuccessfully — to externalise asylum processing and detention systems. Finally, there is likely to be a significant gap between the high costs of the scheme and its low effectiveness in deterring irregular migration and ensuring individuals’ compliance with return orders. 

Read the full commentary here.