Publications

Russia’s foreign policy decision-making process is an enigma. Four explanations compete in order to understand Russia’s Ukraine policy: offensive interpretations, including imperial readings, defensive neorealism, a situational and a domestic politics interpretation. The article discusses the explanatory power of the respective approaches. Different policy options follow form the conceptual approaches - a return to détente, containment or deterrence or a necessary regime change in Russia. The Ukraine conflict teaches lessons for Western policy - it must define, communicate and credibly commit itself to its ultimate intentions. Furthermore, agreements on the consequences of violations of rules of behavior are necessary in future. Any actor violating rules should be able to calculate in advance the costs of rule violation.

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