Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies

Leading military nations are engaged in an accelerating arms race in militarising emerging technologies. This development has significant implications for the global security environment and risks increasing the likelihood of inadvertent nuclear war.

The rationale for developing new military technologies is deterrence. But how does the advancement of these capabilities affect deterrence? Does it strengthen it, or perhaps even weaken it? In his doctoral research, Ryan Swan seeks to answer this central question. The research design for testing the impact of emerging military technologies has a theoretical and an empirical component. It involves deriving insights and forming hypotheses from game theoretic modelling of abstract scenarios. These theoretical conjectures are then tested empirically in the context of the Sino–American deterrence relationship. The empirical component uses a variety of data, including observational data, a range of scholarly and policy literature, experimental wargame simulations and interviews.