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After Hamas launched an unprecedented bloody terrorist attack inside Israel on October 7, 2023, which caused a high death toll and involved hostage-taking, Israeli forces responded harshly through indiscriminate, “incessant bombardment of Gaza” and then launched a ground invasion. The UN High Commissioner of Human Rights noted that “there is no safe place in Gaza and there is no way out… The humanitarian and human rights consequences will be devastating and long-lasting. Thousands have already died, many of them children.” 

As observers of this deadly and destructive war, we raise the following questions: 1) Is there potential for a refugee crisis to emerge from this conflict? 2) What are the responsibilities of surrounding states, mainly Egypt and Jordan, in accepting refugees from Gaza if they decide to provide safe routes for people of Gaza ? Similar to almost all armed conflicts, forced internal and external displacement are the immediate results of the war for all sides. However, it is much more complicated in this case as there is no place to flee to from Gaza (as long as the borders are closed) and, if they flee, there will be no place for Palestinians to return to, neither temporally nor permanently.

The unfolding events signal a risk of forced displacement and may lead to yet another refugee crisis. Tens of thousands of Israelis were displaced in the aftermath of Hamas attack, and cared for by the Israeli state and society. The number of internally displaced Palestinians reached millions; it is estimated that “some 1.4 million of the 2.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip have fled their homes in an attempt to escape the violence.” This was in response to Israel ordering about 1 million Palestinians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip ahead of escalating bombardment and incremental ground incursions. Additionally, the Israeli intelligence acknowledged that it had “drafted a wartime proposal to transfer the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million people to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula” and that it had sought the support of Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and even Canada to either offer financial support for this plan or take in refugees. Along similar lines,“ Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to convince European leaders to put pressure on Egypt to accept refugees from Gaza, while the US administration made contingency plans to fund the “potential needs of Gazans fleeing to neighbouring countries”. In addition, the EU and the US have offered Egypt aid and debt relief to open the border.  It is not clear whether the proposal of Israeli intelligence is being considered by Israel’s defence establishment or not, but the idea of Palestinians’ expulsion to Egypt and Jordan is not new; Israeli politicians have been calling for similar proposals before the events of Oct 7 and afterward. However, it seems like this idea has become more acceptable to certain governments in the “West”, who are using Hamas' terrorist attack targeting Israeli citizens to legitimise such plans. 

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This blog post was first published at GAPs Blog on November 20, 2023.

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