Publications

---

In 2030, the envisaged year of the accomplishment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), millions and millions of displaced people will still be living under precarious conditions. It is already clear that the SDGs’guiding principle “leaving no one behind” cannot be fulfilled; forced displaced people will be left behind. This Policy Brief identifies global trends of forced migration that will challenge the international community in the coming decade. Forced migration is linked to the emergence, dynamics, and escalation of violent conflicts, and so it is difficult to predict or capture its actual scale. What is more, the extent to which climate change may affect new flows of refugees is also unknown. Nevertheless, it is clear that the number of forced migrants will not decrease in the coming decade, but rather continue to rise. To date, approximately 70.8 million people have fled their homes. Survival “in displacement” will become normal for the vast majority of forced migrants unless policy-makers radically change their course and find durable solutions for them. Based on many years of empirical research at BICC on forced displacement, the following five trends can be identified for the coming decade.